Abstract: In order to predict the shale gas production more accurately by typical curves and thereby to instruct and optimize the development program design, the shale gas production decline typical curve models were reviewed. These models include Arps typical curve models (incl. hyperbolic decline curve, exponential decline curve and harmonic decline curve), modified hyperbolic decline model, power law exponent model, hybrid model, and Duong’s model. These models were separately elaborated from the aspects of principles, advantages and disadvantages. These models were compared based on the data of a shale gas well. Results show that the ultimate recoverable reserves (EUR) predicted by hyperbolic decline model is the largest among the models, but the prediction results of other models should be further demonstrated depending on fluid and reservoir characteristics. With consideration to certain defects in the models revealed by the study, it is suggested to strengthen the researches on basic theories. Moreover, the probability method is recommended to define the probability range of typical curves, so that the production risk can be accurately evaluated.

Key words: shale gas, production decline, type curves, model, productivity evaluation