Strategic pattern of China’s oil and gas exploration and development in the new era and prospects for 2035

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1672-7703.2021.03.001

Abstract

Abstract: Since 2000, great progress has been made in China’s oil and gas exploration and development with rapid development of natural gas, large-scale development of unconventional oil and gas, and further improvement of oil and gas reserves and production increase in the onshore western region and offshore areas, basically forming a new pattern of oil and gas exploration and development strategy of “simultaneous development of oil and gas”, “promotion both conventional and unconventional resources”, “linkage between the eastern and western regions”and “overall planning of onshore and offshore areas”. The preliminary judgment of reserves and production forecast data by various methods such as reserve discovery law and life cycle in different exploration stages, suggests that the existing pattern of oil and gas exploration and development will be more prominent before 2035, which is expected to achieve “three surpassing”, that is, natural gas production (oil equivalent) will surpass oil production, increment of unconventional gas production will surpass that of conventional gas, and oil production in the onshore western region and offshore areas will surpass that in the eastern region. For oil exploration, the annual production will be stable at 2×108t for a long period, and a new pattern of “three pillars” of the eastern region, western region and offshore areas be formed. While for natural gas exploration, the annual production continues to maintain a rapid growth, reaching 3100×108m3, and a new pattern of “mainly in the western region, supplemented by offshore areas and the eastern region” be further established. At the level of government policy, following suggestions are put forward: (1) Strengthen the strategy of “stabilizing oil and increasing gas production”, vigorously develop natural gas,and accelerate the transformation to green and low-carbon energy; (2) Increase policy support for unconventional resources such as shale oil and gas, coal-bed gas, etc., and promote large-scale benefit development; (3) Strengthen risk exploration and technological research on deep formation of onshore western region and deep water areas, so as to provide a strong domestic oil and gas supply security for basically realizing the goal of modernization by 2035.

Key words: oil and gas, exploration and development, newly increase reserve, strategic pattern, development prospect

CLC Number:

TE132

Men Xiangyong, Wang Luxin, Wang Yue, Lou Yu, Guo Wei. Strategic pattern of China’s oil and gas exploration and development in the new era and prospects for 2035[J]. China Petroleum Exploration, 2021, 26(3): 1-8.

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