关键词: 准噶尔盆地, 石油资源量, 探明储量, 资源探明速度, 预测

Abstract: The amount of oil resources of 8587million tons has been discovered in Junggar Basin .It took 50 years for oil exploration , but the discovery rate of oil resources in the basin reaches only 21.85% up to the present. Comparing with the mature basins in eastern China (60% in average) and the major petroliferous basins in the world (77.1% in average), Junggar basin assumes a lower level in oil resource discovery rate. So an additional 3200 million tons of discovered oil geologic reserves is at least to be proven in this basin. It presents the analyses of growth tendency of domestic oil reserves, the relationship between the proven degree and the discovered speed of basinal resources and the incremental patterns of proven reserves in Junggar Basin in the Seventh Five-Year Plan to the Tenth Five- Year Plan period, provides the predicted indices of the oil reserves, and makes predictions of the future growth patterns of proven reserves in this basin. The result shows that the incremental proven reserves in Junggar basin will be at the level of 68.59 -96.69 million tons during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the discovered speed per year will be 0.80%~1.12%. In 2011~2020, the annual incremental proven reserves should range from 63.90 to 96.90 million tons with annual discovered speed of 0.74%~1.13%. According to the status and efforts for petroleum exploration nowadays, the petroleum geologic conditions and the hydrocarbon accumulation characteristics, as well as the hydrocarbon migration/accumulation regularities and the exploration potentials in Junggar Basin, it is believed that the majority of reserves to be proven will be found in new areas or domains with low discovered rate in Junggar Basin one after another.

Key words: Junggar Basin, oil resources, proven reserves, resource-discovered speed, prediction